VICTORIA’S COALITION NARROWS THE LEAD BUT LABOR SET TO WIN THE ELECTION

The ALP is set to beat Coalition to election victory, the latest Fairfax Ipsos Victorian State Poll shows.

The poll of 1,236 Victorians who are certain to vote at the State Election*, conducted between 25-27 November 2014, shows the primary vote for Labor at 35% (down 4) and the Liberal-National parties on 42% (up 3). The Greens continue to lead the minor parties with a 15% share of the vote (down 1) and other parties are on 8% (no change).

“On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads the Liberal-National parties by 52%, down 4, to 48%, up 4, based on respondent preferences, that is, how respondents said they would allocate preferences,” Ipsos Director Jessica Elgood said[1].

“The poll results show the Coalition regaining ground – in terms of leader approval, preferred Premier and positive perceptions of Dr Napthine as a leader – but it looks like it will not be enough for them to close the gap on Labor.”

Key findings                                                                                                                               

  • Dr Denis Napthine’s approval at 49% (up 3), disapproval at 40% (up 3), net approval +9 (no change)
  • Mr Dan Andrews’ approval at 42% (up 2), disapproval at 43% (up 6), net approval -1 (down 4)
  • Dr Napthine leads Mr Andrews as preferred Premier by 44% (up 2) to 42% (up 3)
  • Voters are more likely to see Dr Napthine as competent (67%), a strong leader (50%), trustworthy (49%), with a clear vision of Victoria’s future (58%), a firm grasp of economic policy (58%) and the ability to make things happen (54%).
  • While Mr Andrews is more likely to be described as having the confidence of his party (77%), being open to ideas (64%) and having a firm grasp of social policy (62%), he is also more likely to be seen as the candidate who is most easily influenced by minority groups (52%).
  • Labor is seen as the better party in creating jobs in Victoria (46%), compared to the Coalition parties (41%).
  • However, a third (33%) trust Coalition parties most to honour their campaign promises; 30% trust Labor most; and 7% say the Greens.

Party leaders
As the campaign draws to a close, opinions of both candidates have solidified, with fewer respondents having no opinion of Dr Napthine and Mr Andrews.

Dr Napthine’s approval rating is 49% (up 3), and his disapproval rating is 40% (up 3). This gives a net approval rating of +9; no change since the last Fairfax Ipsos poll (6-9 November).

Mr Andrew’s approval rating is 42% (up 2), and his disapproval rating is 43% (up 6). This gives a net approval rating of -1; down 4 points.

Dr Napthine narrowly remains the preferred Premier for Victoria, with 44% (up 2), rather than Mr Andrews, 42% (up 3). Dr Napthine’s lead as preferred Premier has shrunk from +9 in the first campaign poll (22-26 October) to +2.

Leader attributes
Of the two candidates for Victorian Premier, voters are more likely to see Dr Napthine as competent (67%), a strong leader (50%), trustworthy (49%), with a clear vision of Victoria’s future (58%), a firm grasp of economic policy (58%) and the ability to make things happen (54%), than Mr Andrews.

Yes, describes No, does not describe Don’t know
  Napthine Andrews Napthine Andrews Napthine Andrews
% % % % % %
Competent 67 55 28 32 6 14
Strong leader 50 45 44 42 6 14
Has the confidence of his party 73 77 16 12 11 11
Open to ideas 54 64 37 25 10 11
Trustworthy 49 41 43 43 7 16
Has a clear vision for Victoria’s future 58 52 37 37 5 11
Is easily influenced by minority groups 25 52 62 33 13 15
Has a firm grasp on economic policy 58 38 32 46 11 16
Has a firm grasp on social policy 45 62 46 27 9 11
Has the ability to make things happen 54 42 40 39 7 19

 

While Mr Andrews is more likely to be described as having the confidence of his party (77%), being open to ideas (64%) and having a firm grasp of social policy (62%), he is also more likely to be seen as the candidate who is most easily influenced by minority groups (52%).

Despite the campaign exposure, Mr Andrews remains the less well known, with higher proportions saying they ‘don’t know’ whether each attribute describes him.

Among Coalition voters, Dr Napthine is most strongly identified as competent (91%), having the confidence of his party (88%), and with a strong grasp of economic policy (86%). 18% of Coalition voters don’t see him as a strong leader, and do not think he has a good grasp of social policy.

Labor voters see Dan Andrews as having the confidence of his party (86%), being open to ideas (84%), competent (81%) and having a firm grasp of social policy (81%). One in five (21%) do not see him as a strong leader, trustworthy nor having a firm grasp of economic policy.

Job creation
Labor is seen as the better party in creating jobs in Victoria (46%), compared to the Coalition parties (41%). Opinion divides along party lines, with those voting Labor (84%) and Greens (76%) strongly feeling Labor will do the better job. Women are also more likely to believe Labor is more likely to deliver on job creation than the Coalition (50%, compared to 43% among men).

Campaign promises
A third (33%) trust Coalition parties most to honour their campaign promises; 30% trust Labor most; and 7% say the Greens.

 

Poll Profile                                                                                                                                                      

Fieldwork dates:           25-27 November 2014

Sample size:               1,236 respondents who are certain to vote

Sample:                       Victoria, aged 18+. 16% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.

Method:                        Telephone, using random digit dialling.

Statistical reliability:   ±2.8% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample

Analysis:                      The data has been weighted by age, gender and location (metro/non-metro) to reflect the population distribution

 

Sources: * Given the change in electoral law since 2010 that now allows Victorians to enrol on the day, the figures for this poll are based on all those who said they were certain to vote at the State Election on today.

[1] When preferences were distributed based on overall share of preferences in 2010, the result is a dead heat, with ALP, down 3, and the Coalition, up 3, both on 50%. ‘Overall’ share means that preferences are distributed based on the total share of preferences attained by the major parties in 2010. Differences between minor parties flows are not take into account (e.g. Green preferences tend to favour Labor more than other parties and candidates, so theoretically an increased Green vote should give Labor an increased share of preferences, all other things being equal).