The ALP is maintaining its lead over the Coalition

The ALP is maintaining its lead over the Coalition, The latest Fairfax Ipsos Victorian State Poll shows. The poll of 1,000 Victorians, conducted between 6-9 November 2014, shows the primary vote for Labor at 39% (up 2 points) and the Liberal-National parties on 39% (no change).  The Greens continue to lead the minor parties with a 16% share of the vote (down 1 point), Palmer United is on 2% (no change) and other parties are on 6% (down 1%). “On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads the Liberal-National parties by 56% – no change – to 44% – also no change, based on respondent preferences, that is, how respondents said they would allocate preferences,” Ipsos Director Jessica Elgood said. “When preferences were distributed based on overall share of preferences in 2010[1], the result is ALP 53% ahead of the Coalition 47%.  This is unchanged since the last poll, conducted between 22-26 October.”   Key findings                                                                                                                               

  • Two-party vote:  ALP 56% (no change) leads the Liberal-National parties 44%  (no change) [respondent prefs]
  • First preferences:  Labor 39% (up 2), Liberal-National parties 39% (no change)
  • Dr Napthine’s approval at 46% (down 1), disapproval at 37% (down 1), net approval +9 (down 2)
  • Mr Andrews’ approval at 40% (up 3), disapproval at 37% (down 5), net approval +3 (up 8)
  • Dr Napthine leads Mr Andrews as preferred Premier by 42% (down 3) to 39% (up 3)
  • Two in five (44%) believe the Victorian education system and economy have got worse since 2010.  More than a third (36%) believe Victoria’s health system has got worse
  • Three in five (59%) support the building of the East West Link; 29% oppose
  • Almost a quarter (23%) say the Federal Government’s performance has made them ‘less likely’ to vote for Dr Napthine.  Two-thirds (67%) say it has made no difference, and 7% say it had made them ‘more likely’.

Party leaders             Dr Napthine’s approval rating is 46% (down 1), and his disapproval rating is 37% (down 1).  This gives a net approval rating of +9; a fall of 2 points. Mr Andrew’s approval rating is 40% (up 3), and his disapproval rating is 37% (down 5).  This gives a net approval rating of +3; an increase of 8 points. Dr Napthine remains the preferred Premier for Victoria, with 42% (down 3), rather than Mr Andrews, 39% (up 3).  Dr Napthine’s lead as preferred Premier has narrowed from +9 in the last poll (22-26 Oct) to +3.   Performance on key issues                                                                                                   Health and hospitals are considered the most important issue in deciding who to vote for[2], and only 15% think Victoria’s health system has improved since the last State Election in 2010.  Two in five (42%) think it has ‘stayed the same’, and more than a third (36%) believe the health system has ‘got worse’.  This gives a net figure of -21.  This marks a nine point improvement over the last twelve months, when the net figure was -30. Victorians are also critical of the State’s education system; 12% believe it has improved since 2010, a third (34%) say it has ‘stayed the same’, and 44% think it has ‘got worse’.  This gives a net figure of -32. One in five (20%) think Victoria’s economy has improved, a third (33%) say it has stayed the same since 2010, and 44% say it has ‘got worse’.  The net figure is -24. When analysed by party support it is shows that, even among Coalition voters, the State Government only receives a narrow ‘net improvement’ figure of +7 for the health system, and +9 for the economy.   Almost half (47%) of Coalition supporters say the education system has ‘stayed the same’ since 2010, with equal proportions (20%) saying it has either improved or got worse, giving a net figure of 0.   East West Link                                                                                                                           Three in five (59%) support the building of the East West Link by the next State Government.  Three in 10 (29%) oppose, and 13% ‘don’t know’. Among Coalition voters support is 82% with only 9% opposed to the building of the East West Link.  Among Labor voters support is 48%, with 38% opposed.   Impact of Federal Government on Victorian vote                                                               Only 7% say that the performance of the Federal Government has made them more likely to vote for the Coalition Premier, Dr Napthine.  Two-thirds (67%) say it has made no difference, and 23% say it has made them less likely to vote for Dr Napthine. Among those currently intending to vote Coalition at the State Election, 10% say the Federal Government’s performance has made them more likely to vote for Dr Napthine.  84% say it has made no difference, and 4% say it has made them less likely to vote Coalition at the State Election.   Poll Profile Fieldwork dates:           6-9 November 2014 Sample size:                1,000 respondents Sample:                        Victoria, aged 18+.  17% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers. Method:                         Telephone, using random digit dialling. Statistical reliability:    ±3.1% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample Analysis:                       The data has been weighted by age, gender and location (metro/non-metro) to reflect the population distribution                                                                                                                                                           [1] ‘Overall’ share means that preferences are distributed based on the total share of preferences attained by the major parties in 2010.  Differences between minor parties flows are not take into account (e.g. Green preferences tend to favour Labor more than other parties and candidates, so theoretically an increased Green vote should give Labor an increased share of preferences, all other things being equal). [2] Fairfax Ipsos Poll conducted 22-26 October 2014, with n=1,401.