Swing sees Liberals hanging on in Canning – Fairfax Ipsos Poll

The Liberals are ahead of Labor in the Canning by-election in the September Fairfax Ipsos Poll.

The poll of 1,003 respondents, interviewed from 10-12 September 2015, shows the Liberal party candidate Andrew Hastie with 53% of the two-party preferred vote, ahead of Labor candidate Matt Keogh on 47%, based on stated preferences. These findings indicate a 9% swing against the Liberals since the September 2013 Federal election.

The two-party preferred vote based on 2013 election preferences shows the Liberals (52%) leading Labor (48%).

First preference votes put the Liberals (Hastie) on 45% and Labor (Keogh) on 36%. The Greens candidate Vanessa Rauland continues to lead minor party support with 9%. The Palmer United Party candidate Vimal Kumar Sharma is on 2%, and others are on 7%.

Twelve per cent of respondents are undecided. These are excluded from the two-party stated preference figures.

“The September poll found that 29% of voters indicated that they felt that Andrew Hastie and the Liberal party have the best policies for managing the ice (crystal methamphetamine) problem in Canning, compared to 12% of voters who indicated that Matt Keogh and Labor have the best policies,” Ipsos Director David Elliott said.

“The remaining 49% of respondents indicated that they don’t know which party has the best policies for managing the ice problem in Canning.”

Key findings

  • Two-party vote, based on stated preferences: Liberal 53% lead Labor 47%
  • Two-party vote, based on 2013 election preferences: Liberal 52% lead Labor 48%
  • First preferences: Liberal 45%, Labor 36%
  • 12% of respondents still undecided
  • Tony Abbott’s approval is at 39%, disapproval is 54%, net approval at -15
  • Bill Shorten’s approval is at 34%, disapproval at 50%, net approval at -16\
  • 36% would prefer Shorten as Prime Minister; 42% would prefer Abbott.
  • 7% intend to change their vote to Labor as a result of the Government’s economic performance

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister

Tony Abbott’s approval rating is 39%. His disapproval rating is 54%. This gives a net approval of -15. Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 34%. His disapproval rating is 50%. This gives a net approval of -16.

Tony Abbott is the preferred Prime Minister at 42%, while 36% favour Bill Shorten as preferred Prime Minister.

The impact of the Federal Government’s economic performance

7% of voters indicated that they would vote Labor because of the Federal Government’s economic performance, whilst 3% say they will vote Liberal because of this economic performance.

78% say the Federal Government’s economic performance has not changed how they will vote.

China-Australia Free Trade Agreement

Support for the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement is mixed, with 43% supporting, and 37% opposed. The balance of opinion is +6.

Support for the Agreement differs according to partisanship. 65% of those voting Liberal indicated that supported the Agreement, compared to 27% of Labor voters.

Q6. Do you support or oppose the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement? Is that strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose?
% All Liberal voters Labor voters Green Voters
Support 43 65 27 32
Oppose 37 19 54 49
Don’t know 13 11 12 12

Males are more likely to be in favour of the agreement at 49%.

Poll Profile

Fieldwork dates: 10-12 September 2015
Sample size: 1,003 respondents
Sample: Canning electorate, aged 18+. 30% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.
 Telephone, using quota sampling.
Statistical reliability: 3.1% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample
Analysis: The data has been weighted by age and gender to reflect the population