The NSW Coalition is maintaining its lead over the ALP, the latest NSW state Fairfax Ipsos Poll has found.
The poll of 1,000 people in NSW, conducted between 5-7 February 2015, shows the primary vote for the Coalition at 46% (up 2) and the ALP on 34% (down 2). The Greens continue to lead the minor parties with a 12% share of the vote (up 1), Palmer United is on 2% and other parties are on 7%.
“On a two-party stated preference, that is, how respondents said they would allocate preferences, the Coalition leads the ALP by 53%, which is up 2, to 47% which is down 2,” Ipsos Director Jessica Elgood said.
“When preferences were distributed based on overall share of preferences in 2011, the result is Coalition at 56% ahead of the ALP at 44%.”
- Recognition of NSW Premier Mike Baird is at 53%, whereas recognition of NSW Opposition Leader Luke Foley is significantly lower at 15%.
- Mike Baird’s approval is at 60%, disapproval is at 18%, both of which are unchanged from November 2014, giving a net approval of +42.
- Luke Foley’s approval is at 30% (down 5 points since former leader John Robertson November 2014), disapproval is at 21% (down 16 points since John Robertson November 2014), net approval +9 (up 11 points since John Robertson November 2014).
- Mike Baird leads Luke Foley as preferred Premier by 54% (down 3 points since November 2014) to 24% (up 2 points since John Robertson November 2014).
- 8% of those who voted Liberal in the last NSW election say the Federal Government’s performance has changed how they will vote in the NSW Election.
- 19% say that if Tony Abbott was replaced as Prime Minister it would change how they will vote in the NSW Election. 78% say that it would make no difference.
Recognition of party leaders
Recognition of Mike Baird is at 53%, whereas recognition of Luke Foley is significantly lower at 15%. Recognition of Luke Foley amongst those intending to vote Labor is only slightly higher at 19%.
Mike Baird’s approval rating is 60% and his disapproval rating is 18%, both of which are unchanged from November 2014. This gives him a high net approval rating of +42.
Luke Foley’s approval rating is 30% (down 5 points on John Robertson’s rating in November 2014), and his disapproval rating is 21% (down 16 points on John Robertson in November 2014). This gives him a net approval rating of +9; which is an improvement on the -2 net approval rating of John Robertson in November 2014.
Mike Baird maintains a strong lead as the preferred Premier for NSW, with 54%, although he has fallen 3 points since November 2014. With 24%, Luke Foley has improved slightly on John Robertson’s 22% in November 2014. Mike Baird’s lead as preferred Premier has decreased since John Robertson was the Opposition Leader, from +35 in the previous NSW poll (20-22 November 2014) to +30.
Impact of Federal Government on NSW vote
Eight percent of those who voted Liberal in the last election say the Federal Government’s performance has changed how they will vote in the NSW Election.
One in five voters (19%) say that if Tony Abbott was replaced as Prime Minister it would change how they will vote in the NSW election. 78% say that it would make no difference. Those most likely to suggest it would change how they vote are the 25-39 year olds (25%).
- Fieldwork dates: 5-7 February 2015
- Sample size: 1,000 respondents
- Sample: New South Wales, aged 18+. 24% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers
- Method: Telephone, using random digit dialling.
- Statistical reliability: ±3.1% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample
- Analysis: The data has been weighted by age, gender and location (metro/non-metro) to reflect the population distribution
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 ‘Overall’ share means that preferences are distributed based on the total share of preferences attained by the major parties in 2011. Differences between minor parties flows are not take into account (e.g. Green preferences tend to favour Labor more than other parties and candidates, so theoretically an increased Green vote should give Labor an increased share of preferences, all other things being equal).