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The Turnbull Honeymoon Continues

The Coalition has retained a strong lead ahead of the Labor party in the November Fairfax Ipsos Poll.

The national poll of 1,402 respondents, interviewed from 12-14 November 2015, shows the Coalition with 56% of the two-party preferred vote (up 3 points since October), ahead of the Labor Party on 44% (down 3 points since October), based on 2013 election preferences.

Laura Tingle
Approval rating
Preferred PM
Phillip Coorey
Latest poll will calm Coalition GST nerves
GST
Malcom Turnbull, Bill Shorten
Australian Labor Party, Liberal Party, National Party, The Greens, Coalition, Palmer United Party
Two-party
SOURCE: IPSOS | GRAPHIC: EDMUND TADROS, DOROTHY WOODGATE
Voters back GST rise... with compensation
The Coalition has jumped further ahead since Malcolm Turnbull became PM
FAIRFAX IPSOS POLL
Primary vote
Primary support for the Coalition remains at its highest point this term
The vast majority of voters prefer Turnbull as PM
Turnbull’s approval is still climbing, while Shorten continues to struggle

 

“These findings indicate a 2.5% swing for the Coalition Government since the September 2013 Federal election,” Ipsos Director Jessica Elgood said.

“The two-party stated preference vote shows the Coalition on 57%, up 3 points since October, leading the Labor Party on 43%, down 3 points since October.”

First preference votes put the Coalition on 48% (up 3 points since October) and Labor on 29% (down 1 point since October). The Greens continue to lead the minor parties with 13% (down 1 point since October). The Palmer United Party is on 1% (unchanged since October), and others are on 8% (down 1 point since October).

Six per cent of respondents were undecided. These were excluded from the two-party stated preference figures.

Key findings

  • Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is at 69% (up 1 point since October), disapproval at 16% (down 1 point since October), net approval at +53 (up 2 points since October)
  • Bill Shorten’s approval rating is at 29% (down 3 points since October), disapproval at 57% (up 1 point since October), net approval at -28 (down 4 points since October)
  • 69% prefer Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister (up 2 points since October); 18% would prefer Bill Shorten (down 3 points since October).
  • 28% support an increase in the rate of GST, with two-thirds (66%) opposed.
  • If an increase in GST is accompanied by other tax cuts and compensation (for those households earning less than $100,000 per annum) 52% would support the change; while two in five (41%) remain opposed.

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister

Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is 69% (up 1 point since October). His disapproval rating is 16% (down 1 point since October). This gives a net approval of +53; an improvement of 2 points. These high ratings match those achieved by Kevin Rudd during 2008-2009.

Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 29% (down 3 points since October). His disapproval rating is 57% (up 1 point since October). This gives a net approval of -28; down 4 points since October.

This is the lowest approval rating Bill Shorten has ever received since becoming Leader of the Opposition – and matches the low figures Tony Abbott achieved in January 2015 before the first Leadership Spill Motion. That said, during his first term as Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull also received approval ratings as low as 31% (August 2009).

Malcolm Turnbull remains the referred Prime Minister, at 69%, an increase of 2 points since October. Only 18% favour Bill Shorten as Prime Minister (a fall of 3 points since October). The only other time that a leader has received such high ratings as preferred PM is during the first 18 months of the first Rudd Government.

GST

More than a quarter (28%) support an increase in the rate of GST, with two-thirds (66%) opposed to this suggested change. This marks a drop in the balance of support from -22 in April to -38.

Q.NOV1 Do you support or oppose an increase in the rate of the GST?
% 15-17 Nov 2012 15-17 May 2014 9-11 April 2015 12-14 Nov2015 Change ±
Support 12 30 37 28 -9
Oppose 86 66 59 66 +7

 

Poll Profile

Fieldwork dates: 12-14 Nov 2015
Sample size: 1,402 respondents
Sample: National, aged 18+. 30% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.
Method:
 Telephone, using random digit dialling.
Statistical reliability: ±2.6% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample.
Analysis: The data has been weighted by age, gender and location (metro/non-metro) to reflect the population distribution.