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Lift for Coalition following second Turnbull/Morrison budget

The Labor Party remains ahead of the Coalition in the post-budget May Fairfax Ipsos Poll, released today.

The national poll of 1,401 respondents, interviewed from 10-13 May 2017, shows the Labor party on 53% (down 2 points since March), with the Coalition on 47% (up 2 points since March), based on 2016 election preferences. This indicates a 3.4% swing against the Coalition Government since the July 2016 Federal election.

“The two-party stated preference vote also shows a lead for the Labor party of 53% (down 3 points since March) and the Coalition on 47% (up 3 points since March),” Ipsos Director Jessica Elgood said.

“In addition, first preference votes put Labor on 35% (up 1 point since March) and the Coalition on 37% (up 4 points since March). The Greens still lead the minor parties with 13% (down 3 points since March). One Nation is on 2% and others are on 13% (down 2 points since March).”

Key findings

  • Voting intention: The Coalition has seen a lift. On the two-party vote, based on 2016 election preferences: Labor is at 53% (down 2 points since March), and the Coalition at 47% (up 2 points since March). And by first preferences Labor is at 35% (up 1 point since March), and the Coalition at 37% (up 4 points since March)
  • Leaders’ approval ratings: Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has been lifted to 45% (up 5 points since March); his disapproval rating is 44% (down 4 points since March). This gives a net approval of +1 (up 9 points since March). This is a significant improvement since March, but still lags the ratings he received following his first budget as PM
  • Preferred Prime Minister: Malcolm Turnbull remains the preferred Prime Minister at 47%, a rise of 2 points since March, while 35% favour Bill Shorten as Prime Minister (a rise of 2 points since March).
  • Satisfaction with budget: The Australian public is divided on whether or not they are satisfied with this year’s Federal Budget; 44% say they are, and 43% say they’re not.
  • Personal affect of budget: Half (50%) of Australians believe they’ll be worse off as a consequence of this Federal Budget, with only one in five (20%) thinking they’ll benefit.
  • Fair budget: Despite a minority (20%) thinking this budget will personally benefit them, on balance, Australians believe this was a fair budget; 42%, compared to 39% saying it was unfair.
  • Support for increased tax on banks: Two-thirds (68%) support the increased tax on Australian banks, rising to three-quarters (74%) among Coalition voters.
  • Support for an increased Medicare Levy: Three in five (61%) support an increased Medicare levy for middle and higher income Australians; 36% oppose this change.
  • Support to increase national debt to build infrastructure projects: While a majority (58%) support increasing national debt to build infrastructure projects, a significant minority (37%) are opposed.
  • Increase spending on schools: There is strong cross-party support for the introduced increased spending on schools over the next decade. Nine in ten of all major party voters support this measure.

Detailed findings
Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister

Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has been lifted to 45% (up 5 points since March); his disapproval rating is 44% (down 4 points since March). This gives a net approval of +1 (up 9 points since March). This is a significant improvement since March, but still lags the ratings he received following his first budget as PM.

Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 42% (up 7 points since March) and his disapproval rating is 47% (down 6 points since March). This gives a net approval of -5 (up 13 points since March).
Malcolm Turnbull remains the preferred Prime Minister, at 47%, a rise of 2 points since March. 35% favour Bill Shorten as Prime Minister (a rise of 2 points since March).

How strongly do you approve or disapprove of the performance of … as Prime Minister?
May
2004
May
2006
May
2008
May
2009
May
2011
May
2012
May
2013
May
2014
May
2015
May
2016
May
2017
BUDGET
%
Howard/ Costello
9th Budget
Howard/ Costello
11th Budget
Rudd/ Swan
1st Budget
Rudd/ Swan
2nd Budget
Gillard/ Swan
1st Budget
Gillard/ Swan
2nd Budget
Gillard/ Swan
3rd Budget
Abbott/ Hockey
1st Budget
Abbott/ Hockey
2nd Budget
Turnbull/ Morrison
1st Budget
Turnbull/ Morrison
2nd Budget
Approve 52 53 69 64 43 35 40 34 42 48 45
Disapprove
41 42 22 32 52 60 56 62 50 40 44
Net Approve
+11 +11 +47 +32 -9 -25 -16 -28 -8 +8 +1

 

Voting intention

The Labor Party remains ahead of the Coalition in the post-budget May Fairfax Ipsos Poll.

The national poll of 1,401 respondents, interviewed from 10-13 May 2017, shows the Labor party on 53% (down 2 points since March), with the Coalition on 47% (up 3 points since March), based on 2016 election preferences. This indicates a 3.4% swing against the Coalition Government since the July 2016 Federal election.

The two-party stated preference vote also shows a lead for the Labor party of 53% (down 3 points since March) and the Coalition on 47% (up 2 points since March).

First preference votes put Labor on 35% (up 1 point since March) and the Coalition on 37% (up 4 points since March). The Greens still lead the minor parties with 13% (down 3 points since March). One Nation is on 2% and others are on 13% (down 2 points since March).

6% of respondents are undecided. These are excluded from the two-party stated preference figures.

Satisfaction with budget

The Australian public is divided on whether or not they are satisfied with this year’s Federal Budget; 44% say they are, and 43% say they’re not. The gives the slimmest positive balance of +1. This is an improvement on the public’s verdict of the first Turnbull/Morrison budget (-7), but less positively received than the second Abbott/Hockey budget (+17) in 2015.

The budget also played better with Coalition voters this year than last, (66% satisfied in 2017, compared to 62% satisfied).

Personal affect of budget

Half (50%) of Australians believe they’ll be worse off as a consequence of this Federal Budget, with only one in five (20%) thinking they’ll benefit. In this respect, this is the worse rated budget since the first Abbott/Hockey budget in 2015.

Core supporters (Coalition voters) are significantly more likely than Labor voters to believe they’ll personally benefit. Those under 40 are more likely to believe this budget will mean they’re better off.

Fair budget

Despite a minority (20%) thinking this budget will personally benefit them, on balance, Australians believe this was a fair budget; 42%, compared to 39% saying it was unfair. This positive balance of opinion (+3) compares favourably to how the public viewed Turnbull and Morrison’s first budget in 2016 (-7).

Men are more likely than women to consider this a fair budget (47% fair among men, in contrast to 37% among women). High income households (over $100k) are more likely than low income households (under $40k) to consider the budget fair, (48% compared to 35%). Coalition voters are also significantly more likely than Labor or Green voters to consider this budget fair; 63%, 25% and 34% respectively saying the budget is fair.

Support for budget measures

Australians were asked whether they supported or opposed a range of measures that were introduced in Tuesdays second Turnbull/Morrison budget. Each of the four measures asked about received majority support from the public.

Tax on banks: Two-thirds (68%) support the increased tax on Australian banks, rising to three-quarters (74%) among Coalition voters. While the majority of all age groups back this measure, the level of support increases with age; 56% support among those age 18-24, 63% among those 25-39, 69% among those aged 40-54 and 77% among those aged 55+.

Increase Medicare levy: Three in five (61%) support the introduction of an increased Medicare levy for middle and higher income Australians; 36% oppose this change. There is no significant difference in support for this measure by income; 58% of high income households (earning $100k per annum) support this change, this rises to 61% among middle income households ($40k-$100k), and to 65% among low income households (under $40k). There is a significant difference by gender, with men more likely to support this change (68% among men, in contrast to 54% among women).

Increase spending on schools: There is strong cross-party support for the introduced increased spending on schools over the next decade. Nine in ten of all major party voters support this measure.

Increase debt to build infrastructure: While a majority (58%) support increasing national debt to build infrastructure projects, a significant minority (37%) are opposed. These positions are consistent across Coalition, Labor and Green voters. Women are significantly more likely to be opposed to this budget measure, (42% opposed, compared to 33% of men who are opposed).

Poll Profile

Fieldwork dates: 10-13 May 2017
Sample size: 1,401 respondents
Sample: National, aged 18+. 31% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.
Method: Telephone, using random digit dialling.
Statistical reliability: ±2.6% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample
Analysis: The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution.